A Programme to Model the Wine Sector in South Africa

Project Number
WEIN 01

Project title
A Programme to Model the Wine Sector in South Africa

Project leader
Lombard, J P

Institution
University of Stellenbosch

Project description
The main problem is the uncertainty of both producers and processors regarding the future of the wine industry with respect to changes in import tariffs, exchange rates, taxes, and other exogenous factors.

The following are the specific aims of the wine modelling programme:
– Develop the macro (wine sector) model and the farm model of the wine sector in order to predict/analyse.
– Concurrently to the above macro model, regional typical farm level models will be developed.
– Generate reliable and useful projections of likely agricultural markets outcomes under alternative scenarios.
– Build institutional capacity to conduct economical analysis that will be useful to decision makers.
– Coordinate and utilize a facilitating panel of South African agribusiness, policy makers and representatives of the academic communities to evaluate longer-term projections and identify for policy analysis, policy options of greatest interest to the South African agricultural sector.
– The overall objective is to serve as a continuous and reliable source for analysis of the agribusiness and farmer communities and the national and provincial departments of agriculture.

Poster(s)
Mkhabela, T S, Lombard, J P and Musango, J K. 2005. Determinants of the choice of grape cultivars in the wine regions of South Africa. October. Conference of the Agricultural Association of South Africa (AEASA).

Presentation(s)
Lombard, J P. 2006. Sector on farm modelling of the wine industry. Presentation at Workshop. 12 May, Stellenbosch. South Africa.

Lombard, J P and Reynolds, S. 2007. Outlook of South African Grape and Wine Industry. WCSA Meeting. 13 June, Goudini, South Africa.

Cutts, M, Reynolds, S, Meyer, F and Vink, N. 2007. Modelling long-term commodities: the development of a simulation model for the South African wine industry within a partial equilibrium framework. Paper presented at the Conference of the Agricultural Association of South Africa (AEASA). September, South Africa.

FinalReport.pdf

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